Developing Future Weather Files Incorporating Impact of Climate Change Scenarios


Developing Future Weather Files Incorporating Impact of Climate Change Scenarios

Overview:

In the decades ahead, it is projected that the effects of climate change will accelerate and intensify. India will potentially experience more severe summers with a higher frequency of heat waves. This will have a significant effect on the energy performance of buildings, especially in terms of thermal comfort and associated cooling demand resulting in enhanced carbon emissions. For India, 2019 was the seventh warmest year on record since 1901, and 11 out of 15 warmest years were recorded during the fifteen years from 2005 to 2019. India’s average surface air temperature is estimated to rise by 2.0-2.8°C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 relative to the recent past (1976-2005 average), by 2100. It is estimated that for tropical climates, buildings will see an increase of more than 20% in overall energy use due to climate change. 

Currently, the building energy models use past weather data (typical meteorological year) to estimate the performance and optimize the building design. Therefore, the ability of such simulations to accurately predict future performance is fundamentally constrained. It is expected that most buildings that are currently being designed and constructed will operate for the next 50-60 years. Consequently, these buildings when exposed to changing climate may struggle to meet the enhanced demand on envelopes and HVAC systems. To ensure that new and existing buildings deliver satisfactory performance over their design lives, their performance under current and future projected climates needs to be assessed by undertaking building simulations. 

Recognizing the necessity, GIZ plans to develop the methodology for generating hourly weather profiles for future years considering different climate change scenarios. A data set of future weather years for approx. 150 locations across India shall be compiled to enable designers to simulate building performance under anticipated future climatic conditions over the course of 21st century.



Supported by:

Ministry of New and Renewable Energy Govt. of India, Gujarat Energy Development Agency, U.S. Agency for International Development iNDEXTb (Industrial Extension Bureau) Govt. of Gujarat, Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation, New Delhi